Gus Young Court: This is our house

Photo courtesy of Ryan Coleman, D3sports.com

St. Thomas has lost just thrice in its last 39 games, but one of those losses came last season at Gus Young Court. While the Tommies have owned the league of late, breezing to three straight conference titles, the Gusties have actually won five of the last six home games between the two squads. Three of those wins have come as heavy underdogs. Each time the Tommies left the court hearing the familiar Gustie battle cry of "This is our house!"

Does that mean the Black and Gold has any right to be cocky heading into Saturday's important showdown? Confident maybe, but not cocky. Tyler Kaus, who hit the game-winning layup last year (shown above) and is now helping coach the JV team, declined to guaranSheed me a victory Thursday night. As much as it pains me to admit it, it was a smart decision on his part.

The Tommies brought their C- game (or worse) in the previous meeting this year, yet still won by 21. They've won 20 straight MIAC games and are currently the top-ranked team in the nation. Despite being undefeated, UST still has plenty to play for — the top seed in the West region and the second perfect 20-0 record in league history are currently hanging in the balance.

The Gusties have turned things around after a particularly ugly stretch that culminated in an 11-point loss at home to Hamline last weekend. That uneven play has lowered expectations, but another upset remains possible, if unlikely.

Here are three keys to making that happen:

1. Solve the press

This is THE key to the game. The Tommies forced 29 turnovers with their mundane we're-more-athletic-than-you press last time, including 17 in a brutal first half to watch. The Gustie guards consistently were hung out to dry when traps came and rarely had an easy pass to beat the pressure. The bigs failed to serve as outlets for the pressure, turning everything into chaos. "They're just athletic as hell," Carleton coach Guy Kalland recently told The Carletonian.

UST scored 27 points off turnovers, with most of that coming on transition layups. I can't recall a single time the Gusties beat the pressure for an easy hoop. Gustavus doesn't want to turn the game into a track meet, but it needs to take advantage of its opportunities for easy baskets. It can't allow the press to be without consequences.

2. Defensive pressure

St. Thomas is a very athletic team that thrives in transition. Anders Halvorson was the only Tommie who really excelled in the halfcourt in the first game. If you take away the 10 easy layups off turnovers (guesstimating), Gustavus held the Tommies to under 40 percent shooting. Though St. Thomas is shooting a robust 55 percent from the floor and averaging 80 PPG — both good for the league lead — I don't see UST as a particularly polished offensive team.

That's a ridiculous way of finding a positive in a blowout, but it may hold some merit. Gustavus held the Tommies to 5-for-18 shooting from beyond the arc, which is about in line with its league-leading defensive percentage. GAC held its own on the boards, despite constantly being on its heels. The Gusties need to rely on teamwork, communication and fundamentals if they hope to stick with the top-ranked team in the country. The defensive intensity needs to be a constant, because the offense is likely to ebb and flow.

3. Finding an offensive groove

The guards looked lost. The posts looked confused. The wings looked hesitant. Honestly, I'm not sure how Gustavus could have played any worse in the previous meeting — but that doesn't mean things HAVE to change in the rematch. Have DesLauriers and Schmidtknecht figured things out at PG? Can Paulson own the paint against the undersized Tommies? Can movement and crisp passing overcome physical limitations against a great defensive team? These are important issues that will decide the outcome on Saturday.

Gustavus doubled its turnover average in the first meeting and dug itself a quick hole. Can the Gusties get off to a better start and hang around for an exciting finish? That's exactly what happened last year, when Kaus capped a dramatic rally with a layup at the buzzer.

Am I predicting an upset? If the Gusties can cut their turnovers in half, I see this being a close game...but I'm not sure that's possible. Would I accept the same bet as last time, taking the Gusties with 15 points? Absolutely!

Player To Watch: Dan Schmidtknecht
Since the first UST game, he's worked his way into a time-share situation at PG. DLo was completely ineffective against the Tommies last time, so the ball-handling duties may fall entirely on his shoulders. That's a daunting task.

Prediction
Tommies 68, Gusties 60


Minnesota Wrap
• The Tommies getting some more love from the media with a D3hoops.com story.
• UST has posted a list of 25 random things about Tomme athletics.
• Cobber women's coach "Thinks Pink" and former men's coach Sonny Gulsvig was recently honored.
• Zach Johnson will soon become Carleton's all-time leading scorer. Rumor has it he also set the school record for flops early in his sophomore year.