How Carleton can beat St. Thomas — but won't

Saturday's game between St. Thomas and Carleton pits the two best teams in the MIAC against each other. Personally, I feel like this game represents the biggest threat to the Tommie run at regular season perfection. However, I haven't had a chance to watch them in person and am a little sketchy on details. To help bring the picture into focus, I've recruited Carleton's Myles Radtke to share his opinions and expertise.

Radtke is a Carleton senior who covers the athletic scene on four difference mediums: He's a writer for The Carletonian campus newspaper, a web broadcaster for Carleton's men's and women's basketball games, the host of a sports show for KRLX radio and a columnist on the CollegeFanz Sports Network.

I'd be curious to hear some predictions about this game from the MIAC faithful in the comments section, which I finally figured out.

Brett Boese: It's a fairly well-known fact that Carleton was at the top of my list as a high school senior, but the numbers game got in the way. Instead, I had to settle for four NCAA tournament berths with the Gusties while lining my pocket with the extra $60,000 I saved. Despite the snub, I've always appreciated the way Guy Kalland runs his program.

The Knights were picked to finish third in the preseason polls. They're currently second with five games remaining, thanks largely to Zach Johnson's MVP-like campaign. However, I expected the loss of Jeremy Sutherland to hurt more than it has. With that in mind, how surprised are you by how well they've been able to patch things together?

Myles Radtke: I have not been surprised that Carleton has rebounded. Alongside Zach Johnson, there was plenty of talent left on the team such as Bryan Rosett, Carter Biewen, Blaise Davis, and Seth Jonker. In addition, Coach Kalland is experienced coach who has dealt with adversity before.

However, I was surprised by how they responded. I thought the key to recovering from Sutherland's injury was Rosett. I believed that he would need to add more offense and guard the opponent's best player in every game. Yet, although Rosett has played well, I do not think he is the biggest reason for Carleton's recent success.

I think Jonker and Kellan McLemore have been the keys to the Knights' season. Jonker has come off the bench to provide a steady 8-10 points each night, and he plays solid defense.

McLemore is a great story. As a freshman, he rarely played a few weeks ago. Now, he is a starter and was the second-highest scorer in the Knights' last game against St. John's. His style of play is quite similar to Sutherland's. He has great basketball instincts. He loves to drive to the basket, and his greatest skill is defense. McClemore's defense against Jesse Van Sickle helped the Knights defeat Gustavus a couple weeks ago.

The play of Jonker and McLemore, not Johnson and Rosett, will probably determine the outcome of the St. Thomas game.

BB: Really? That's an interesting notion that may have some validity. Johnson went for 35 last game against the Tommies, converting 12 of 16 shots and getting to the line eight times. He's a tough match-up for anyone — including UST — but he was almost a one-man show.

Besides Johnson and Rosett, the Knights shot a dismal 26 percent — and that includes your boys, Jonker (1-2) and McLemore (0-0). Considering that pair combined for just four points, zero boards and one assist in 40 minutes in the previous meeting, there's really no where to go but up.

St. Thomas is the top-ranked team in Division III and has rarely been challenged this year. It's won 18 straight MIAC games, including an 83-72 victory over the Knights earlier this year. The Tommies are the lone undefeated team remaining in Division III and have won their last two games by a combined score of 185-85, with 110 points coming from the bench.

You've already explained what Carleton needs to have happen to spring an upset, but how do you see things playing out? Does Carleton actually have a chance in this one?

MR: It would be naive to say that St. Thomas is not likely to win.

St. Thomas is the #1 team in the nation, and they defeated Carleton rather convincingly earlier this season. Plus, there are some matchup problems for Carleton.

The biggest achilles' heel for the Knights is rebounding. Carleton has a rebounding margin of -1.6, while the Tommies' margin is a conference-leading +5.5. As a result, St. Thomas outrebounded the Knights 32-22 in the last game. Most importantly, St. Thomas had 14 offensive rebounds in that game.

Moreover, in recent years, St. Thomas has been able to dominate the tempo of the game and turned these games into high-scoring affairs, which does not play to Carleton's strengths.

That said, I do think Carleton has a chance. There are been some major changes to the Knights team in the last month.

The last time these two teams played the Knights were still reeling from the loss of Sutherland. As a result, the Knights were constantly shuffling their lineup, and they struggled to get bench points. The Tommie bench outscored the Knights' 15 to 0. Now that Jonker, Morris Nwogwugwu, Bobby Schmitz and Miles Silbert have more consistent roles that is unlikely to happen again.

Secondly, the emergence of McLemore has improved the Knights' perimeter defense, and it has allowed Rosett to focus on guarding post players.

Still, with these changes, there is still one constant: Zach Johnson. The Tommies struggled to contain Johnson, who scored 35 points in their Jan. 10 matchup.

Lastly, Carleton will be on mid-term break during this game, which means Carleton students will not have a conflict between studies and watching basketball. I expect this to be the largest crowd in Carleton's West Gym in years. Since West Gym is configured so that fans are only a few feet away from the players, a large crowd would give the Knights a huge home-court advantage.

It will be much tougher for the Tommies to win this time around.

BB: But will the Carleton students stick around over break? It rarely happened in my days at Gustavus and UST SID Gene McGivern recently told me it was a problem among the fickle Tommie fans, too. I'm not sure I'd count on that happening Saturday, no matter how big the game might be.

One last thing I want to ask you, the Carleton expert. How concerned are you about Johnson's, um, theatrics in such a big game? You wrote a piece in early December claiming he got a raw deal from the refs when he got the boot in a loss against St. John's. The reffing in the league is admittedly sketchy, but where do you assign blame for something like that?

I've appreciated Johnson's game the last few years, but his act drives me nuts. What's your take? Could it really be a good thing for the team?

Finally, hit me with a prediction.

MR: I will address the Zach Johnson issue first. Yes, his flopping and his badgering of officials can be tiring, and he often deserves technicals. My point in the December article is that, based on the dialogue between this particular referee and the scorer's table, Johnson was destined to be ejected before the game started, which I think ruins the integrity of officiating.

However, concerning this upcoming game, I think their will be no theatrics from Johnson. Since that December game with St. John's, Johnson has avoided any notable run-ins with the officials, and he has played with a more laid-back demeanor. This is probably the result of conversation between Johnson and Coach Kalland after that St. John's game.

Next, I am aware that many students from St. Thomas go home during breaks and weekends since my brother is a Tommie. I would assume that Gustavus is the same way. Unlike these other colleges, many students do not go home for short breaks since they often live hundreds of miles away. Considering that mid-term break is only a day or two (depending on class schedule), I expect most students to stay and attend the basketball game.

Predicting this game is difficult. The Tommies are playing well at this point, and they seem to have Carleton's number. However, I am confident that the Tommies will eventually slip up and lose their first game. Why not against Carleton? For that to happen, Carleton needs to make it a slow and bruising game. If the Tommies are allowed to get out and run, it will be a long day for the Knights. Carleton must keep the Tommies under 70 points to have any chance of winning. Unfortunately for the Knights, I do not see this happening.

Prediction: St. Thomas 72 Carleton 68

To all those Carleton students, I hope I am wrong. I truly do.

Minnesota Wrap
• Some interesting tidbits from Gene McGivern's latest blog. Almost makes you wonder how many interns he's got chained to the history books to make this work. Most sports information offices aren't even running a blog, yet he's got a Division I quality press release on a weekly basis. Are they prepping for something BIG in the near future? The new $52 million athletic complex might be another step in that direction.
• UST coach Steve Fritz gets some pub, but you'd think they might use a picture from this century. Maybe McGivern was holding out for a FOURTH story about the Tommie hoopers this season and they called his bluff?
• The annual Tommie update also hit the press today. Too bad another streak also continued — for the second time in three years, an MIAC player had his name spelled wrong in the biggest publication the state has to offer. It was Ole senior Jon Bain in the first article (spelled "John" by Reusse) and UST senior Brett Tuma is mistakenly referred to as "Tom" this time. When you can count the number of Division III articles on one hand and the mistakes fill the other, that's not a good ratio. What's a league gotta do to get some respect around here?
• Bad news for the Cobbers.
• The Free Press has a story on the history of Gustavus basketball.